New Weeknd, Playboi Carti & Tate McRae: Which Hot 100 Top 20 Debut Will End Up the Biggest Hit?

After a week in which the highest debut on the Billboard Hot 100 was the No. 21 bow of Linkin Park’s “The Emptiness Machine,” this week, three new entries on the chart grace the back half of the top 20.

The highest of the three comes from the most established pop star: The Weeknd, whose new Hurry Up Tomorrow gets underway with the No. 14 debut of its lead single “Dancing in the Flames.” Then comes rap star Playboi Carti, whose much-anticipated new song “All Red” lands at No. 15. And finally, Tate McRae’s well-received new single “It’s OK, I’m OK” enters at No. 20.

Which of the three songs will have the longest legs? And why have we had so few top 10 debuts on the Hot 100 of late? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. “Dancing in the Flames,” the first taste from The Weeknd’s alleged final chapter Hurry Up Tomorrow, bows at No. 14 this week. Is that higher, lower or about where you would have expected for the song?

Rania Aniftos: Definitely lower, but I can’t figure out why. Was it because there wasn’t enough build-up between the announcement and release, perhaps? I was expecting the lead single of the project to at least debut in the top 10, especially given how record-breaking After Hours was. Maybe the rest of Hurry Up Tomorrow’s rollout will boost the track.

Katie Bain: I’m not surprised to see The Weeknd’s first solo track of the year debut higher than his recent The Idol-bred group efforts, and 14 feels like a good starting point for the song, which I think is one that grows on the ears with each listen. And in that sense, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one keep climbing from here, especially that  given his history, we know he’s the king of keeping songs on the Hot 100 for the long run. 

Jason Lipshutz: Maybe a little lower, considering The Weeknd’s track record of top 10 debuts on the Hot 100 and the relative radio silence preceding this much-hyped new single. To me, the No. 14 debut speaks less to the long-term chart potential of “Dancing in the Flames,” and more about how static the top of the Hot 100 is currently — as Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” spends an 11th week at No. 1 and radio-boosted hits by Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Kendrick Lamar and Morgan Wallen have logged months in the upper frame, new tracks like “Flames” have a tougher time trying to break through in their first weeks of release. If I’m Team Weeknd, I’m cool with a No. 14 debut, with an impetus on trying to push upward this fall.

Michael Saponara: First off, solid lead single from Abel. Although, I did think it would debut higher than No. 14 on the Hot 100 with the anticipation heading into the final chapter feeling palpable combined with the fact he released an EP version of the single featuring nine different versions had me believing XO was looking for even more commercial dominance out of the gate. 

Andrew Unterberger: It’s low for a new Weeknd single… but about right for this new Weeknd single, in my opinion. It’s a fine song, it’s just not exciting or new-sounding enough to me for it to force its way into the top 10, especially not at a time when nothing in the top 10 seems to want to budge for anyone new.

2. “All Red” is already Playboi Carti’s top-charting song as a lead artist on the Hot 100, debuting at No. 15. Does the song mark a big step forward for him artistically or commercially, do you think, or is its high debut mostly the climax of the few years’ worth of momentum he’s built up through high-profile guest appearances and general cult-building?

Rania Aniftos: Huge step forward! Rap fans already knew Playboi Carti is a force to be reckoned with. While mainstream music fans knew his talents as a collaborator, it’s about time he’s getting appreciated as a solo star. I feel like this is just the beginning for Carti on the Hot 100.

Katie Bain: To my ears, this is one of the catchiest and most accessible songs of the Carti catalog thus far, so I have to believe this debut is a synergistic function of the song working for and across more listener bases, along with general cult-building. 

Jason Lipshutz: The latter. “All Red” doesn’t try to reinvent the wheel when it comes to Playboi Carti’s signature approach, but after months of anticipation for his next solo era, the single arrived on a mountain of hype and scored enough immediate streams to notch his career-best solo debut. Whenever Carti does drop the follow-up to Whole Lotta Red, I’d expect more of the experimental streak that made his last album so compelling; for now, “All Red” is a warning shot aimed at the mainstream, and it accomplished its job.

Michael Saponara: King Vamp is back. It’s a major statement for him commercially, but this is also due to the build-up surrounding the fact Carti hasn’t released any music officially on streaming services since 2020. Whether you like it or not, he’s the king sitting atop the throne for rap’s Gen-Z fans. Just take a look around the industry and you’ll see plenty of artists attempting to dress like him, mimic his cryptic persona and match the chaotic production he amplified on 2020’s Whole Lotta Red. Cash Carti is the guy right now.

Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s more about Carti and the cult he’s amassed than about this song in particular — though this song does do its job fairly well. It’s always more about the albums than the individual songs with him anyway, so I think we’ll see the true impact of his ballooning stardom if and when the Whole Lotta Red follow-up drops.

3. Tate McRae’s “It’s OK, I’m OK” bows at No. 20 on the Hot 100 — the highest-debuting song of her career. Has she proven to you yet that she belongs on pop’s A-list, or does she still have some distance to go there?

Rania Aniftos: She’s right there, but I think she needs one more “Greedy” level hit to push her over into the A-list pop category. She certainly has all the traits of a main pop girl, and I would love to see her have a Sabrina Carpenter-level breakthrough year. 

Kaite Bain: She’s obviously hustling towards the A-list and I’m not surprised to see her gaining traction given how hard she’s working. This song certainly gets her closer, if not all the way there yet. More so it makes me curious about/excited for what she might do next.

Jason Lipshutz: The idea of “Tate McRae, A-lister” would have seemed far-fetched a year ago… but since then, she’s scored a legitimate pop smash in “Greedy,” a top 10 album with Think Later, performed on SNL, headlined Madison Square Garden, and now earned the first top 20 Hot 100 debut of her career. “It’s OK, I’m OK” isn’t quite as immediate as “Greedy,” but McRae’s trajectory has continued pointing upward as she’s sunk deeper into her choreo-ready rhythmic pop identity. If she’s not on the A-list yet, she’s striding towards it with confidence.

Michael Saponara: Tate McRae’s next album will vault her firmly into pop’s A-list. Coming off her first tour performing in arenas, the Canadian singer’s arrow is clearly pointing up as she soars into further stardom at just 21 years old. By the time her next LP rolls around, we can probably point to “It’s OK, I’m OK” and her summer as the start of her journey making the quantum leap into pop lore. 

Andrew Unterberger: It feels like only a matter of time, doesn’t it? The bar for breakout pop stars assuming the A-list has obviously been raised this year with the ascents of Roan and Carpenter (and the comeback of Charli XCX), so I don’t think she’s quite there yet — but damn if she isn’t starting to check those boxes left and right at this point. Why wasn’t she performing on the VMAs, again?

4. Of the three songs, which do you see having the most endurance on the chart? Will any of them still be on the Hot 100 ten weeks from now?

Rania Aniftos: I feel like I’m being cynical, but none of them have longterm potential for me. Maybe “All Red” depending on what he releases in the next few months, but I feel like all three of these artists have something better on the way.

Katie Bain: The Weeknd to me has the strongest chance here, given his massive global star power, the fact that this is a buzzy moment in terms of the song marking the start of a new chapter and the fact that “Dancing in the Flames” is just catchy and kind of broadly palatable.

Jason Lipshutz: I refuse to underestimate a big, mainstream-ready single by The Weeknd — a man who, by his own admission, comes alive in the fall time. “Dancing in the Flames” won’t reach “Blinding Lights” levels of commercial success, but The Weeknd has the cross-platform pedigree to power a lead single into hit status, and I think “Flames” contains the hook necessary to endure on the Hot 100 for a while. When we start switching our playlists over to Christmas music, I’d bet that “Flames” is among the non-holiday singles populating the chart.

Michael Saponara: The Weeknd and Tate McRae will still be holding strong on the Hot 100 with “Dancing in the Flames” leading the pack. There’s a chance Carti is hanging around too, but let’s see if he actually ends up delivering on his long-awaited WLR follow-up, which has been rumored to finally arrive in the coming weeks.

Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s “It’s OK, I’m OK” — that seems to be the song that’s getting the best fan response, and it seems like it’s hitting at the right time in the right post-Short n’ Sweet spot to get picked up on radio. I don’t know if it’ll have “Greedy”-like legs but I think it’ll be around for a bit.

5. While all three songs make strong bows, none of them reach the top 10 — and indeed, the only new top 10 hit we’ve gotten this month has been Sabrina Carpenter’s “Taste.” After such a competitive period on the Hot 100 this spring and early summer, why do you think activity at the top has really slowed to a crawl in the late summer and early autumn?

Rania Aniftos: Not to bring TikTok into this, but the same few songs have been circulating the platform for the past few months, and it’s the songs that are currently in the Hot 100 top 10. I fear it’s going to take a new round of viral hits on TikTok for us to see some shake-ups on the Hot 100, which typically happens toward the end of the year anyway.

Katie Bain: There’s been so much hype and kismet around the Sabrina, Shaboozy and Chappell juggernauts, not to mention the barrage of hits by mainstays like Jelly Roll, Morgan Wallen, Kendrick, etc. that just seems hard to match, despite the caliber of the names involved in this week’s chart.

Jason Lipshutz: We were gifted a generally excellent slate of summertime singles in 2024, with songs like “Espresso,” “Good Luck, Babe!,” “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and “Not Like Us” all ranking among the most memorable hits of the year. And once they landed in the top 10, they kept going within the upper tier of the chart — and many weeks later, pop listeners still aren’t sick of them. That will change in due time, as we receive a new crop of fall hits, but the static top 10 speaks to the quality of the current biggest hits, songs designed to entertain for multiple months instead of a couple weeks. 

Michael Saponara: With a flurry of superstars dropping throughout the first half of the year, they took up a lot of oxygen on the Hot 100 to the point I think we just reached a point of saturation with some of these anthems being such dominant forces that just refuse to give up chart real estate. I believe it will eventually cycle through and there will be newcomers in quarter four. 

Andrew Unterberger: Carpenter’s album has been the only really splashy album debut this month (not counting Travis Scott’s reissued mixtape), and too many big songs right now have maintained their streaming numbers while amassing major radio support — making it tough for anything new without major, major momentum behind it to break through. We could really use a left-field viral smash or two this autumn, but it appears we may have run dry on those for the time being.